Rainfall variability and rice production in Nigeria: A co-integration model approach

One major key elements of climate change is rainfall which contributes strongly to agricultural productivity. In Nigeria, the production most food crops through rain-fed especially rice production. Rice national interest and security concern as it forms a part an average Nigerian diet country depends heavily on importation meet citizens’ demand. Also, low yield has been recorded in local this attributed various climatic factors but notable, irregularity short period rainfall. Against backdrop, became expedient study relationship between quantity Nigeria 1980 2012(32years). Secondary data was used for study. The analytical tools are descriptive analysis, trend Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model Error correction (ECM). result revealed that years 2012, total 90,630,400 metric tonnes averaging at 2,832,200 per annum while amount 37,047mm with mean 1157.74mm year. found long run association multiplier effect 3.151. Rainfall be positive significant (1.717) 10% level. coefficient ECM -1.390 high probability value 0.004.The concluded dependency only source water intake cannot match expected cater populace Nigeria. policy implication government needs invest more irrigation another This will ensure all year round lead higher income farmers, reduced foreign rice, poverty populace.